Countries that could go green, amber and red today
Which countries are currently green?
- the falkland islands
- Faroe Islands
- Israel and Jerusalem
- New Zealand
- The South George and South Sandwich Islands
- Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha
So, will other countries go green this week?
Sadly, no one in the travel industry expects an exceptional Green List update, especially after the Prime Minister said on Monday: “I want to stress that it will – no matter what – a difficult year for travel.
“There will be hassles, there will be delays, I’m afraid, because the priority must be to keep the country safe and to prevent the virus from coming back.”
The UK government postponing the end of Covid restrictions to July 19 – due to rising rates of the Delta variant, which originated in India – the ‘open borders’ approach is clearly not a particularly attractive option for the Prime Minister, even though science suggests it is now safe to do so. New data shows that only 0.4% of arrivals from orange destinations have tested positive for Covid-19.
However, according to the government’s own traffic light criteria (see above), there are a number of destinations that must be scribbled with the large marker on Grant Shapps’ whiteboard. Media Secretary John Whittingdale has raised some hope among holidaymakers, he told Sky News the list would be revised “later this week to make revisions to the green list, and I hope we can add more countries to it “- I hope.
Here are the countries that we hope are at least on the watchlist for promotion to “green” this week.
Cases per 100,000: 2.94
Second dose administered: 67.41%
The Mediterranean island nation has twice missed the ‘green list’, despite its low number of cases and strong vaccination campaign, and hopes to finally go green in this week’s announcement. Why? There have only been eight cases of Covid-19 reported in the past seven days (that’s 2.94 per 100,000 in a week) and 67.41% of the population has been double bitten. The UK, by comparison, is at 57.25 percent of adults with two doses.
Maltese Foreign Minister Evarist Bartolo had strong words to say the last time Malta failed to go green. He wrote on Facebook: “The [British government] ignores scientific advice. He made the political decision not to allow travel anywhere, despite the pressure he is under from airlines, tour operators and the general population.
Cases per 100,000: 23.92
Second dose administered: 56.12%
Based on the data alone, surely the United States should go green in today’s announcement. Cases have declined nationwide and the second doses are increasing day by day.
However, the latest reports suggest that a UK-US travel corridor is more likely to occur later in the summer.
Dr Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser for the United States, told ITV News: “I think once they get more and more people vaccinated and they get just one dose for themselves. ensure they get their second dose, I think the UK is going to be in a very favorable position by the end of the summer.
A joint travel task force is allegedly working on a UK / US travel corridor as you read this, and is expected to report back next month.
Cases per 100,000: 14.18
Second dose administered: 26.59%
A snapshot of Croatia’s daily case rate shows its second wave is well and truly over. On Sunday, only 58 people in Croatia tested positive for Covid-19. The seven-day tally is 582 cases, or 14.18 per 100,000 – a fraction of the UK’s current infection rate. What’s more, the number of cases continues to drop – down 38% from last week. With a vaccination campaign that is gaining momentum (41.89% have received a first vaccine), Croatia hopes to be green for the summer school holidays at the latest.
Cases per 100,000: 12.01
Second dose administered: 30.68%
The country that was at one point the epicenter of the Covid-19 epidemic at the start of the pandemic is now in a much better position. Its weekly rate of Covid-19 cases is 12.01 per 100,000, considerably lower than that of the UK. The vaccination campaign is also accelerating, with 30% of the population having received both doses of the vaccine.
The bad news, however, is that over the weekend Italy imposed tighter restrictions on arrivals in the UK. Anyone arriving in the country from the UK must enter a five-day quarantine and pass mandatory tests before and upon arrival.
the Balearic Islands
Cases per 100,000: 22
Second dose administered: 28.1%
Grant Shapps has confirmed that the islands will be viewed independently from their mainland counterparts, meaning the Balearics should be a serious contender for “green” status in the next update. With cases at 22 per 100,000 and a quarter of the population double-bitten, the island chain is now in a stronger position than the Canary Islands.
A number of other destinations should, by the government’s own standards, be considered for the green list, according to an analysis of data by Paul Charles of the PC Agency. These included Finland, Poland, Morocco, Grenada, Mexico, Canada, Barbados, Germany and Jamaica.
What destinations could turn to amber?
Cases are increasing or remaining high in South Africa, the United Arab Emirates and the Seychelles, making it unlikely that any of these popular holiday destinations will turn orange in this update. There is, however, one destination that can be relieved of its “hotel quarantine” status.
Cases per 100,000: 47.08
Second dose administered: 23.08%
The most popular vacation destination on the Red List hopes to turn orange, either in this update or by the end of July. Cases in Turkey have dropped. A peak of 63,000 daily cases in April has now fallen to 5,000 a day. This brings the seven-day case rate to 47.08 per 100,000 – less than half that of the UK (106.65). Almost half of the population (46%) received a first dose and 23.08% received a second dose.
Which destinations could turn red?
It is likely that the government will want to show progress on this announcement, rather than another step back, so it is not expected that a multitude of countries will be demoted to the red list. This is reinforced by the recent revelation that – of the 24,511 redlisted arrivals tested since May 20 – only 435 (1.8%) have tested positive. Of those 435 cases, 341 were from Pakistan, Bangladesh and India, all of which are already on the Red List.