Explore Europe’s diplomatic and trade relations with China.

By STUART LAU

Send tips | Find me on Twitter | Subscribe for free | View in your browser

HOLIDAYS? YOU WISH: You may be preparing for summer vacation (sorry Southern Hemisphere readers) – but the leaders of the world’s two biggest superpowers are busy at work today trying to avert World War II. 2022.

Xi’s biggest headache this week — Pelosi: Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will take part in a perilous stakes call on Thursday amid fresh disagreements over Taiwan. Tensions escalated after a plan emerged last week for US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan in August – as POLITICO, FT et al reported. Chinese diplomats and military officials then threatened military action (unspecified) if Pelosi’s plane was heading for Taipei. “If the United States insists on going its own way, the Chinese military will never sit idly by, and it will certainly take strong measures to thwart any interference from outside force,” said Senior Colonel Tan Kefei, the chief military officer. word of the Chinese Ministry of Defence. Tuesday. Stay tuned to our website for all updates.

WELCOME CHINA DIRECT! Here is your host Stuart Lau, Europe-China correspondent at POLITICO with this Thursday’s newsletter. I’m ready for all your automated email responses telling me you’re on vacation, but contact me here if you’re reading and want to give me feedback on your vacation spot.

CHINA’S NUMBER 10 LOSER

FALCON VS FALCON: How different from David Cameron’s 2015 Golden Age politics with Xi. The current contest for the leadership of the British Conservative Party (and by extension the next British Prime Minister) is now a competition to see who can be the toughest and most brutal on China. Former finance minister Rishi Sunak is keen to shed a soft past on China and embrace the conservatives’ preference for a hardline turn. His rival, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, is also calling for a sharp turn from the politics of self-proclaimed Sinophile Boris Johnson.

Rishi the convert: Many members of the Conservative Party are unconvinced of Sunak’s sudden reversal. Just a few weeks ago, Chancellor Sunak was eager to push for a high-level economic dialogue with his Chinese counterpart, Vice Premier Hu Chunhua. The dialogue mechanism sat dormant for a few years and its pro-business stance was criticized for ignoring the new geopolitical reality. Not anymore.

On a pinned tweet (which means the message that is constantly displayed at the top of his account) Sunak, the candidate for number ten, calls China “our number one threat.” He made four pledges: (1) to close the 30 Confucius Institutes in the UK; (2) building a “NATO-like international alliance” to “combat Chinese cyber threats”; (3) expanding the reach of Britain’s MI5 spy agency to help businesses and universities “counter Chinese industrial espionage”; and (4) stopping Chinese takeovers of British tech companies.

“I AM DELIGHTED,” Truss told Sunak during a debate this week, “that you’ve joined my way of thinking. Whether it’s taking the alternative to the Chinese Belt and Road with our G7 colleagues, that it’s clear that Taiwan should be able to defend itself against Chinese aggression – we’ve led on that, and frankly what we’ve heard from Treasury is a desire for closer economic relations with China. also promised to crack down on TikTok, a popular video app controlled by a Chinese company.

Real Hawk’s Opinion: Iain Duncan Smith, a former Conservative leader and co-founder of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, said of Sunak’s performance: “I have a simple question: where have you been for the past two years? “

BEIJING IS NOT SATISFIED: “I would like to inform some British politicians that they cannot solve their own problems by frequently using China to make an argument and touting the Chinese threat,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao said. Lijian.

Nor are the Golden Eraers: “There is also a group of free-trade Tory MPs who have long feared the outbreak of a Dutch auction of anti-China rhetoric,” wrote Patrick Wintour of The Guardian. “Boris Johnson’s brother Jo has long warned that if Brexit is followed by a full-fledged Ch exit (an economic decoupling with the world’s second-largest economy), it would be tantamount to trying to fly the Global Britain plane after having demobilized the two main engines in flight.

Reminder on the timeline: The winner will be announced on September 5, before around 160,000 party members choose their favorite in a postal ballot.

THE BELT AND THE ROAD MEETS WAR

TRAINS DERAILLED BY POUTINE: China-Europe freight trains that are a key part of Beijing’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative have taken a hit after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, writes our trade reporter Sarah Anne Aarup. “The war in Ukraine has completely wiped out the China-Europe rail express phenomenon for now,” said Jacob Mardell, an analyst specializing in China’s grand infrastructure plan at the Mercator Institute for China Studies.

Stagnating growth: Connections had grown by more than 20% per year in recent years, but in the first half of 2022, this growth slowed to 2.6%.

Risky business: The slowdown in growth is largely due to traders no longer wanting their goods to pass through Russia via the northern route of the so-called New Silk Road, lest they run into legal trouble. since the Russian railways are under financial sanctions from the EU and the United States.

CHINA SALU CROATIAN BRIDGE (EU-FUNDED): The famous Pelješac Bridge, 2.4 kilometers long, was inaugurated this week in Croatia, connecting two parts of the country separated by part of Bosnian territory on the Adriatic coast. The €526 million project – mainly funded by the EU – went to China Road and Bridge Corporation, a Chinese state-owned giant, in 2018.

Appeal from the Prime Minister: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, who gave a video speech at the bridge’s opening ceremony, described the project as a victory for the EU. “China and the EU are important political forces in the world and major economies, and their cooperation will not only contribute to their own development but also to the development and progress of mankind,” he said.

The Croatian Prime Minister likes the bridge: The bridge is a “turning point in relations between Croatia and China”, Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic said in an interview with Chinese state media Xinhua. “It is also a guarantee for the further development of quality economic relations, the increase of investments, trade and the intensification of our cooperation.” On the other hand…

EU FLAGSHIPS: The Croatian bid went to China years before the EU felt the need to respond to Belt and Road, which resulted in the Global Gateway initiative. And there is new movement on this slow project. According to German newspaper Handelsblatt, EU foreign ministers will sit on Global Gateway’s supervisory board under the leadership of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and “competent commissioners”.

The implication? Some member countries are not convinced of the Commission’s ability to act geopolitically. The newspaper quoted diplomats as saying there were doubts, particularly about Koen Doens, director of the EU’s powerful directorate on international partnerships, who was “reluctant to see China as a systemic rival until the very end”.

On the list: Namibia and Tajikistan would be shortlisted to be the first partner countries under Global Gateway.

PROPAGANDA ❤️ BELGIUM

DO YOU HAVE WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING FOR? From July 15-20, Belgian netizens searching for “Xinjiang” on YouTube would get recommended videos from Chinese state-controlled media, including CGTN, CGTN Français and New China TV, a European project to monitor and counter disinformation. algorithmic, CrossOver, found . Report by our cybersecurity reporter Antoaneta Roussi.

According to the group, the majority of CGTN’s videos are promotional content (surprise, surprise) of Chinese President Xi Jinping visiting the northwest Xinjiang region in mid-July. Antoaneta’s research also produced a CGTN video titled “What is the Chinese ‘re-education camp’ in Xinjiang?”

Bury the UN report: CrossOver’s findings coincide with a Reuters article on China calling on UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet to bury a long-awaited report on human rights abuses against Uyghurs in China. Xinjiang, which is expected to be released in August. Beijing has also mobilized what it calls 1,000 NGOs to demand that Bachelet drop his report.

The million yuan question: how? How the Chinese media succeeded in influencing the searches of Belgian users remains a mystery for researchers.

TIPS FOR SUMMER HOLIDAYS

STAY TUNED TO COVID STATISTICS: China is seeing an increase in domestic travel this summer as many regions reopen hotels. Still, tourists are worried, as Beijing remains strict on the zero COVID policy. “When my daughter and I went to Chengdu, we saw on social media that there was a positive case, and we felt so nervous,” Ms Zhang told state media Xinhua. Chengdu is a city of 16 million people. It’s far from a stress-free summer for many.

THANKS A LOT: To the editor Tim Ross and journalists Sarah Anne Aarup and Leonie Kijewski.

SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO family of newsletters: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Playbook Paris | Privacy Policy | Sunday Crunch | EU influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | Live China | Berlin Bulletin | DC Playbook | CC Influence | Global Insider | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters